CO_2 Reduction Target Scenario Simulation Based on the Structural Adjustment of CO_2 Emission Sectors——A Case of Guangdong Province
提出基于部门结构调整的碳减排目标建模方法，以广东省为例，模拟不同情景下的减排效果，发现仅靠提高能效或产业调整无法达标，需综合施策。
This paper presents a new method of modeling carbon reduction targets based on sector structural adjustment and applied to a low-carbon development practice in Guangdong Province. Basing on the features of CO2emissions from energy consumption of total or that of each sector, the basic framework of the scenario analysis is built up. Three scenarios including inertia development scenario, relative decoupling scenario and absolute decoupling scenario, are set to simulate the overall carbon reduction. Another three scenarios including baseline scenario, industry restructuring scenario and comprehensive carbon reduction adjustment scenario, are set to simulate the allocation of the overall carbon reduction goal into each sector. The result shows that the state-assigned carbon reduction target of 2015 of Guangdong is a realistic carbon reduction target between the inertia development scenario and relative decoupling scenario and its realization lies in improving energy efficiency. However, it is impossible to improve energy efficiency to complete the carbon reduction goal unless there is a substantial structural adjustment. Despite industrial restructuring is significant to carbon reduction, it alone is not enough to achieve carbon reduction goal. Only when the industrial restructuring is combined with the synthetic carbon reduction measures such as manufacturing industry structural adjustment, technological innovation, energy restructuring and life energy saving, can the goal be realized.It has proved that the method distribute the target to each sector, thus is conducive to decomposition and realization of the carbon reduction goal.