URBAN AGGLOMERATION SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT TREND BASED ON GROWTH CAPACITY IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA
通过构建城市增长能力评价模型，计算长三角16个城市的综合增长能力系数，分析未来发展趋势，提出反K型发展模式和网络型状态，为城市群空间结构优化提供参考。
From the perspective of the urban growth capacity, and by way of establishing the index system of urban growth capacity, and using entropy weight method to determine the weights of the evaluation index, and combination of grey relational analysis method, the paper builds the evaluation model of urban growth capacity, and calculates the comprehensive growth capability coefficient. Basing on the results of cluster analysis of the 16 cities' growth capacity, it further discusses the development trend of the urban agglomeration in Yangtze River Delta. In the future, the trend of the Yangtze River Delta's development will be showed: firstly, the city function of Shanghai will be changed, it is becoming a center for trade, financial, talents and information; secondly, Hangzhou, Suzhou and Wuxi will accept the economic radiation of Shanghai, and these cities will get further development; thirdly, Nanjing as the core functions of the metropolitan area will be enhanced rapidly and play an increasingly important role for promoting regional development. The paper puts forward the reverse-Ktype development mode and network-type state of the urban agglomeration, so as to provide reference or basis for the optimization, layout and further development of urban agglomeration space structural in the Yangtze River Delta.