Calculation and Driving Factors Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Traffic and Transportation Energy Consumption in Jilin Province
基于1999-2011年吉林省交通能源消费数据，测算碳排放并分析其动态变化及环境库兹涅茨曲线，发现碳排放持续增长，柴油消费是主因，2011年出现拐点；利用STIRPAT模型揭示人口、人均GDP等驱动因素的弹性系数。
Based on the traffic and transportation energy consumption,the carbon emissions of traffic and transportation energy consumption are obtained by using the estimation model of carbon emissions from 1999 to 2011 in Jilin Province,and the dynamic changes and the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) of carbon emissions are analyzed.The result indicates that the carbon emission of traffic and transportation energy consumption increased continuously from 99.3750× 104t to 331.8255×104t between 1999 and 2011 in Jilin Province,the change process is divided into three stages which include the stage of the stationary growth phase,accelerated growth stage and slow growth stage,the large consumption of diesel energy is the main reason of the rapid growth in carbon emissions.The EKC of carbon emission shows the inverted Ushape roughly and the turning point appeared in 2011,after 2011,carbon emissions will decrease along with the economic growth.Based on the STIRPAT model,the study reveals that elasticity coefficients of driving factors such as population,per capita GDP,the unit GDP energy consumption,the investment of traffic and transportation,city rate,the number of private cars are 0.2344,0.2202,-0.2247,0.1657,0.2864 and 0.2163,respectively.Jilin province must implement effective measures to change the existing development mode of traffic and transportation,change the energy structure,and increase the innovation of scientific and technological,to strive for the realization of negative growth in carbon emissions of traffic and transportation energy consumption.