Energy Shock and Economic Fluctuations in China—the Study Based on a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
构建三部门DSGE模型，模拟发现能源冲击对中国宏观经济影响最大，国际能源价格数据会放大经济波动，而利率规则可缓解波动。
China's rapid economic development accompanied by huge amount of energy consumption and the rapid increases of energy prices would no doubt have negative impact on the economic stability.Considering that the resource of the economic fluctuation is not unique,a three-sector DSGE model is built to study the impact of energy shock on the Chinese economy and the transmission mechanism of the shock as well.The transmission mechanism of the exogenous shocks are determined by the principles in this model such as intertemporal aubstitution of consumption,labor and consumer substitution and interest rate policy rules,but the specific pathways of exogenous shocks are different.The simulation results showed that among all the shocks,the energy shock has the most influence on the macro economy and if using the international energy price data to simulate,the fluctuations of China's economy would expand.Besides,interest rate rules could ease this fluctuation.