An Empirical Study on the Sino-Russian Trade Balance and Real Effective Exchange Rates of RMB
基于1997-2007年季度数据，用协整理论分析人民币实际有效汇率、中俄GDP与中俄贸易平衡的关系，发现汇率与贸易平衡无因果关系且无J曲线效应，贸易顺差主因是中国出口结构优化。
This paper empirically analyses the relationship among the real effective exchange rates(REER)of RMB,real GDP of China,real GDP of Russia and the Sino-Russian trade balance according to co-integration theory and quarterly data collected from 1997 to 2007.The study shows that there is no causal relationship between REER of RMB and Sino-Russian trade balance.The results also indicate that the REER of RMB and Sino -Russian trade balance does not exist J-curve effect in general,Sino-Russian trade balance has larger Russia's income elasticity and smaller domestic income elasticity.In the case of revaluation of the RMB,the fundamental causation of favorable trade balance is the structure optimization of china's exports.Finally,some recommendations in view of the current financial crisis on the Sino-Russian trade are put forward.