Nonlinear Relationship between House Prices and Inflation,Output:A Research Based on Threshold Model
通过理论模型和门槛模型检验，发现房价对通胀和产出存在门槛效应，低增长阶段影响显著，高增长阶段不显著，且门槛模型能改进预测。
With simple theory model,this paper firstly inspects nonlinear relationship between house price and inflation,output The study finds that financing constraints,industrial capital hollowing,negative income and savings effect are important reasons which lead to nonlinear dynamic relationship between house price and inflation, output.Next,the author tests the nonlinear relationship in China with threshold model.The results are as follows:(1)House prices have an threshold effect on future inflation and output,and when house prices are in low growth stage,the positive influence which house prices bring to inflation and output is very significant; when house prices are in high growth stage,house prices have no significant effect(2) Relative to the linear model,threshold model can effectively improve inflation and output forecasts.This means that if hope to make full use of leading information which house prices contain about future inflation and the output,and realize the target of stabilizing inflation expectations and maintaining stable economic growth,the policy authorities will have to bring house prices to low growth stage.