THE STUDY ON SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE FOR THROUGHPUT CAPACITY OF THE CONTAINER PORTS IN CHINA
受金融危机和国内经济结构调整影响，中国集装箱运输供需关系变化。本文用状态空间模型预测需求，分析GDP、外贸和集装箱化率的影响，评估港口吞吐能力供需平衡，发现产能过剩并提出政策建议。
Being affected by the international financial crisis,domestic economic restructuring and other factors, the supply and demand relationship of container transport is evolving in China.This paper forecasts the demand of container transportation based on state-space model,analyzes the impact of GDP,foreign trade volume and containerization rate from a qualitative view,and amends the quantitative prediction.Then,the planning throughput of container ports is analyzed in China,and adaptability capacity of container port is pointed out. Based on the above analysis,the supply and demand balance of container port capacity is quantitatively evaluated in China,the conclusion oversupplythe is drawn,and the possible serious consequences is described.Finally,this paper put forward some policy proposals for the excess capacity.