Research on Cyclical Fluctuation of China's Economy:Based on the Inventory Index of 5000 Enterprises
基于中国人民银行5000家企业调查数据编制产成品库存指数，发现该指数具有顺周期特征且滞后经济波动一个季度，当前指数连续五个月上升后出现下降迹象，显示企业生产扩张暂时放缓。
It has been demonstrated both by domestic and international theory and empirical study that the inventory fluctuation is of pro-cyclical characteristics,which makes it useful for the monitoring of economy operation. The paper tried to compile the inventory index of finished goods for the 5000 enterprises,grounded on the 5000 Enterprises Survey conducted by the People's Bank of China.Through the analysis,it is proved that the 5000 Enterprises Inventory Index basically displays the feature of pro-cyclicality and fits the fluctuation of economy with one quarter's lag.Currently,the inventory indices shows the signs of declining after five months' successive rising,which shows that the expansion of enterprises' production is temporarily slowing down.