THE DEVELOPMENT TREND OF RURAL ECONOMY AND INFLUENCE MECHANISM OF POLICY ON IT IN MAJOR GRAIN PRODUCING AREA
基于中国粮食主产区5个时期数据，分析县域农村经济差异的时空演变，发现主产区整体存在条件收敛，但与销区差距扩大，政策未能协调中央、地方与农户利益，导致经济增长停滞。
Based on data collected from major grain producing area of China over 5 time periods(1980,1990,1996,2000 and 2008),influence mechanism of China's policy on its economic growth has been in-depth studied by analyzing the temporal-spatial evolvement of regional disparities of rural economic development on county scale.The results are as follows.The major grain producing area could be demonstrated as economic backward class in that there has been conditional convergence of regional disparity for major grain producing area as a whole since 1980,while between major grain producing area and food sales area disparity became larger and larger after 1990,even though there saw a narrower gap in rural economic development from 1980 to 1990.The proportion of the primary industry decreased from 38.6% to 19.9% and that of agricultural labor force decreased from 73.4% to 57% and rural population decreased from 85.7% to 82.3% during 1996-2008.Interesting insights are obtained into the root of stagnation of economic development in major grain producing.On the one hand,it suggests that the national strategic limitation to arable land protection and food security deprives of its right to develop economy,on the other hand,the current policy which hardly solves any underlying problem challenging its economic growth is considered.As the interests relationship in the major grain producing area between central government,local government and rural household has not been coordinated,it fails to increase rural household income together with grain yield by playing to the best its comparative advantage of high agricultural yield and good quality and late-developing advantage out of industrial structure adjustment.It is very important to establish a mechanism and policies for innovation to guarantee rural economic development.