Research on the Earnings Forecast Deviation of Institutional Investor and the Stock Trading Volume Prompted by the Commission Incentive
基于信息反应模型，研究了机构投资者盈利预测偏差与股票交易量之间的激励关联，发现偏差会提高交易量并增加券商佣金，提示散户应警惕机构投资者的自利行为。
Based on the information - react model,this paper studies the incentive correlation between the institutional investor's earning forecasts deviation and the stock trading volume.Then,the authors make empirical analyses after collecting the data of earning forecasts and stock trading volume from 2006 to 2010.The empirical result indicates that the institutional investors' earning forecasts are significantly deviate from the previous average earning forecast in the stock market and the difference will raise the trading volume,in turn leading to an increase of brokerage fee.The result implies that individual investors should take into account of the institutional investors' selfishness when reading their earning forecast report.