SCALE FORECAST OF URBAN CONSTRUCTION LAND BASED ON GRAY SYSTEM MODEL: A CASE STUDY FROM DINGCHENG DISTRICT IN CHANGDE CITY
通过灰色关联分析找出影响建设用地需求的关键因素，并用灰色模型预测常德市鼎城区2010年和2020年的建设用地规模，为土地利用规划提供依据。
The general land use planning is a comprehensive regional plan for local economic development to provide scientific and legal basis.Local economic development is the basis for the effective supply of constructive land.Land demand forecast prepared by the overall planning of land use,and is also the basis for land-use management.To do a good job in Changde City's general land use planning,make it more far-sighted,operational,good to be realistic scale of the land demand forecast.By gray correlation analysis,constructive land demand is closely related with GDP,the total population,the town population,investment in fixed assets,GDP per capita,output value of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry.Based on these factors,conducted the forecast scale of constructive land in 2010 and 2020 by meanw of.Predicted that the total size of land for construction of 26 500hm2 2010 gray model,GM(1,1) model.Combination of GM(1,1) model and the linear regression model,the scale forecast of urban constructive land use is a reliable guarantee for the general land use planning.