Inflation Illusion,Expectation Bias and Stock Market Evaluation
研究了通胀预期下投资者行为的双重偏差（股息贴现偏差和预期行为偏差），并通过模型和实证发现中国股市存在通胀幻觉现象，导致股价非理性膨胀。
The inflation illusion,as a kind ofabnormal phenomenonin financial market,refers to that investors discount the real cash flow with nominal interest rate,which results in the devaluation of asset value.The traditional inflation illusion theory has analyzed the asset pricing mechanism and revealed the distortion of intrinsic value of stocks by inflation rate,without paying attention to the influence of inflation expectation on asset pricing.This paper analyzes thetwo-fold deviationof the expectation of investors' behavior affected by the inflation expectation on the premise of expected inflation:the deviation of dividend discount and the deviation of expected investors behavior affected by the inflation expectation.Moreover,based on the model analysis,the paper also empirically studies the affect on the investors' behavior and asset evaluation that inflation expectation, the result shows that the inflation illusion phenomenon exists in Chinese stock market as well.Under the circumstance of inflation expectation,assets price is affected by the investors' emotion and subjective risk premium, which resulted in the stock price isn't discounted according to the dividend cash flow,so market speculation prevails and assets price irrationally expands.