On the Effects of RMB Appreciation on the US Unemployment
用VECM模型发现人民币升值对美国失业率有正反两种效应：长期看升值与美国失业率正相关，但短期冲击分析显示升值减少中美贸易，进而推高美国失业率，说明升值不是解决美国失业问题的良方。
This paper employs the VECM model to find two opposing effects of Chinese RMB appreciation on US unemployment Results from cointegration test show that US unemployment rate is positively correlated with RMB valuation.However,impulse response analysis shows that the opposite transmission mechanism is dominant; RMB appreciation has a long lasting negative impact on Chinese exports to the US and reduces the total trading scale after 5 months.A negative shock in Chinese imports from or exports to the US leads to a rise in US unemployment rate.Our results imply that RMB appreciation is not the recipe for the current US unemployment problem.Finally,Some policy suggestions are provided.