ANALYSIS OF FARMLAND AREA VARIATION PROCESS AND VARIATION TENDENCY IN HUNAN PROVINCE
基于1949-1999年统计数据，分析了湖南省耕地面积变化的三个阶段（增长、波动、减少），发现人口增长、经济发展等是内在动力，而政策影响显著，并预测了2010年不同政策下的耕地面积差异。
Based on the analysis of statistic data from 1949 to 1999, the farmland area variation process and its tendency in Hunan province are discussed. In the last 50 years , farmland area variation has gone through three different stages i.e. growth stage, fluctuation stage, and decrease stage in Hunan province. The total area of farmland has reduced from 340.23 × 104hm2 in 1949 to 321.32 × 104hm2. The factors that result in the decrease of farmland quantity include agriculture composition regulation, seizure by non- agricultural basic construction, damage by natural calamity, and cultivation withdrawal resulting from ecological and environmental construction. The correlation analysis and the grey relation analysis show that population growth, economic development, life style change, and living standard improvement are the inherent motive power. At the same time , the farmland area variation greatly depends on the national or regional farmland protection policies.By 2010, the farmland area will produce significantly different results under different farmland protection policies.