Land Use Pattern Evolution and Scene Simulation in Zhenjiang
基于1994-2012年遥感数据，分析镇江土地利用演变特征，并用改进的CLUE-S模型模拟三种情景下2030年的土地利用格局，为区域土地利用优化提供参考。
Based on TM/ETM + remote sensing data in Zhenjiang from 1994 to 2012, using the dynamic model and transfer matrix model to analyze the characteristics of the land use pattern evolution since 1994, this paper set the scene schemes and used the modified CLUE- S model to simulate and forecast the evolution trend in the future. The results showed that: the land utilization was divided into three stages: a slowly lift(1994~2000), a rapid rise(2000~2006) and a steady decline(2006~2012). In the land utilization shift, cultivated land were mainly transformed to construction land,and woodland and other agricultural land were transformed to garden landscape type. The optimal size of the modified CLUE- S model was 300 m × 300m; 1)under the cultivated land protection, the conversion of the basic farmland in the restricted areas restrained the appropriate expansion of the construction land, and by 2030, the proportion of cultivated land will increase by 4.35%, mainly located in the eastern plain areas; 2)under the economic development, the construction land expansion was the most notable, and by 2030 its acreage will increase by 15.26%, occupying a large number of cultivated land surrounding the built-up areas; 3)under the ecological protection, land for ecological protection such as woodland and waters will increase, distributing in the western hilly areas. Simulations under different scenes provided theoretical and practical reference for the adjustment and optimization of the regional land utilization.