A CASE STUDY ON THE EVOLVEMENT OF SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF GUILIN'S OVERSEA TOURIST ORIGINS
分析了桂林20年来海外客源市场份额变化，发现客源空间分布趋于集中，但吸引半径无明显变化，对旅游目的地市场策略有参考价值。
The changes of market shares of Guilin' s oversea tourist origins in the last 20 years is analysed in this paper. It is re-vealed that since the late of 1980s, Guilin's oversea tourism development has entered a fluctuant stage because of the influenceof some special events. The market shares of international tourists have increased, yet those of Hongkong, Macao and Taiwanhave decreased. The spatial concentration index (SCI) of tourist origins had risen from 1986's 42.59 to 1991's 52.07 then to1999's 53.51, which means that after 15 years, Guilin's oversea tourist spatial distribution has become more concentrated.Taking into account the percentage of tourists from each tourist origin(except tourists from Hongkong, Macao and Taiwan), thepaper develops a formula to calculate the attraction radius (AR) of tourist destination (TD) according to the formula of standarddistance given by stephen Smith (1989). Using the distance between Guilin and the capital city of each area as the mean dis-tance, the paper calculates the attraction radius (AR) of oversea tourist destination (OTD). The result shows that Guilin's ARof OTD has no obvious change even after 15 years development. Then the paper gives the probable reasons for the rise of Guilin's SCI which are as follows: firstly, centralization is the common feature in the international tourist industry in most countries asintra- continent travel prevails in the world tourist industry. Secondly, the rapid developments of the nearby countries make peo-ple in those countries feel more like to travel than before. Thirdly, tourists of deferent areas have deferent biases. The paper fi-nally concludes that to the mature tourist destinations like Guilin, the tourist origins is not easily changed, but as intra-conti-nent travel prevails in the world tourist industry, the centralize of tourist market shares is unavoidable.