MEASUREMENT OF THE DRIVING EFFECTS ON INDUSTRIAL WATER UTILIZATION CHANGE AND ITS SPATIAL DIFFERENCE ANALYSIS IN CHINA
利用LMDI分解法分析1997-2007年中国工业用水变化的四个驱动因素（经济发展、产业结构、用水强度、人口规模）及其时空差异，发现经济增长和人口扩张增加用水，而产业结构优化和用水强度降低减少用水。
Four factors respectively named economy development level,industrial structure,water utilization intensity and population size are comprehensively considered as the factors that impact on the change of industrial water utilization,the factor decomposition model under the extended Kaya identity was established,the decomposition model was solved by the method of LMDI(Longarithmic Mean Divisia Index),then the driving effects of the four factors were analyzed and the main factors were determined in time series,which may useful for the understanding of industrial water utilization change from 1997 to 2007 in China.Adopting the ISODATA cluster model,the driving effects of four factors were clustered in space,then the analysis of spatial difference characteristics was carried out.The results showed that:(1)The economy growth and population expasion increased water utilization,whose average effect are 670.47×108m3 and 33.47×108m3 from 1997 to 2007,and industrial structure and water utilization intensity decrease water utilization,whose average effects from 1997 to 2007 are-208.62m3 and-480.62m3 respectively in the same phase;(2)The average contribution ratio of economy development level and population size are 1 056.96% and 12.83% from 1997 to 2007,and the ones of industrial structure and water utilization intensity are-117.64% and-852.16%,so the economy development level and water utilization intensity are the determined factors for water utilization change,and the effect of population size should not be neglected;(3)The spatial difference of various effects reflect such a phenomenon that the effect function has a consaguineous relationship with the economy development level,industrial foundation,technical level and population scale,so the implement of zero increase and negative increase goal should be in the continuous development of nation economy,and the water shortage problem also should be solved by inproving the economy developmentin level.The result of this research is of significance for exactly understanding the relation of the industrial water utilization and economy development,and also has certain reference significance for the regulation of industry policy and sustainable development.