Macroeconomic Effects of House Property Tax Reform and House Price Movement:A Simulation Analysis Based on DSGE Model
构建DSGE模型模拟中国房产税改革与房价变动的宏观经济效应，发现改革虽降低房价但短期冲击经济，且房价增速存在阈值效应。
This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model to describe the macroeconomic effects of house property tax reform and house price movement.Based on the results of numerical simulations, this paper finds some useful results.House property tax reform will reduce the house price but also bring bad news for China's macro economy.The automatic stabilizer effects of house property tax will be more effective after the reform.Positive shocks from house price could bring negative effects for macro economy in the short-term,but the negative effects will translate into positive effects within several years.There is a threshold effect that the macro economy would become stagnancy if the growth rate of house price overran the threshold.