Determinants and Misalignment of Renminbi Real Effective Exchange Rate:1994~2009
基于行为均衡汇率模型，利用1994-2009年季度数据，发现相对生产率增长、贸易失衡和支出占比是人民币实际有效汇率升值的主因，而中美货币与收入差异导致贬值，失调趋于收敛。
Based on Balassa-Samuelson effect hypothesis and monetary exchange rate model,Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate model(BEER) is employed to estimate Renminbi(RMB) real effective exchange rate's determinants and misalignment.We try to catch the characteristics of China' transition,and process variables more carefully.The sample period is from 1994Q1 to 2009Q4.Based on cointegration analysis,the basic findings is that,the main determinants are the relative productivity growth,the rapidly enlarged trade imbalance, and the expenditure to GDP,which lead to RMB real effective exchange rate' appreciation;Balassa-Samuelson effect exists to RMB;On the other side,China/USA' money and income differentials leads to RMB depreciation. And the misalignment can also be deemed to be convergent Finally,some implications are presented.