On the Instruments,Rule Design and the Macroeconomic Effects of the Monetary Policy of China
基于中国季度数据，用结构向量自回归模型和新凯恩斯模型，比较数量型和价格型货币政策工具的效果，发现名义利率规则在控制产出和通胀上更有效，为利率市场化改革提供政策设计参考。
Based on China's macroeconomic quarterly data,the paper adopts structural vector autoregression(SVAR) model,and applies Narrative method to indentify particular monetary policy shock,then explores the corresponding macroeconomic effects by impulse response function for quantity- based instruments and price-based instruments.Several empirical facts reach;(a) monetary supply policy is implemented randomly,the effectiveness of which is relatively limited;(b) monetary growth rate policy is implemented by pegging inflation rate,showing significant and persistent effects on output;(c) nominal interest rate rule is pegging inflation and real output gap,showing mixed effects of promoting output and keeping staggered price stability.Furthermore,the paper estimates China's monetary policy,and sets up the monetary New Keynesian model,in order to evaluate the effectiveness under marketization interest rate,suggesting that compared to quantity monetary policy,the nominal interest rate rule is endowed with more effectiveness on controlling output and inflation,and with less economy fluctuations;and the interest rate policy should mainly target inflatioa On this basis,the paper designs effective monetary policy for China's ongoing interest rate marketization reform.