Research on the Spatial Pattern Evolution of County Economy Disparities in Gansu Province and Its Surrounding Areas
运用空间计量模型和核密度估计等方法，分析了1990-2010年甘肃及周边县域经济的空间俱乐部收敛现象，发现经济增长存在空间自相关和两阶段特征，收敛速度缓慢下降，并识别了历史条件、经济区位和区域政策三大影响因素。
Using spatial econometrics model,this paper intends to analyze the regional economic inequality-club convergence of Gansu Province and its surrounding areas(adjacent counties) during 1990~2010.Meanwhile,this study explores the spatial distribution character of regional economy through Spatial Variogram and the Kernel Density Estimation.The results show that: ①there exists an obvious spatial correlation characteristics in the county-level economy growth of Gansu Province and its surrounding areas and there exists a phenomenon of spatial club convergence;②the economy growth of Gansu Province and its surrounding areas during 1990-2010 can be divided into two stages by applying space Markov Chain analysis,namely before 2000 and after 2000.The result of the study suggests that there is an obvious club convergence in the two subintervals;③the general speed of convergence in Gansu Province and its surrounding areas during 1990-2010 is slowly declining by using CSDA method.However,the estimation result of β-convergence model with grouping shows that the model fitting capability has been greatly improved and the speed of convergence has declined in the whole economic zones except Chengdu;④the economic development of Gansu Province and its surrounding areas shows different structural characteristics in different periods.As time goes by,the spatial self-organized characteristics of the economic development have become stronger and stronger and the distribution diversity of the spatial economy also gets clearer on macroscopic and obscure on microscopic scale;⑤the kernel density of Gansu Province and its surrounding areas shows that the growth of the sub-tissue nuclear center presents the trend of north,east,south,western.To conclude,three factors contribute to the evolvement of the economic development diversity in the Gansu Province and its surrounding areas: historical conditions,economic location,and the policies of the regional economy development.The former two are the intrinsic factors and the latter one is the extrinsic factor.