A STUDY ON THE TEMPORAL VARIATION MECHANISM OF GRAIN PRODUCTION IN SHANDONG PROVINCE
基于山东省近50年粮食生产统计信息，分析了总产量时间变化，发现单位面积产量和播种结构是直接驱动因素，复种指数、技术进步和自然灾害是间接因素。
Based on the statistical information in relation to grain production during the last 50 years in Shandong Province, the temporal variation of total grain yield is analyzed in this paper. According to the analysis, the direct driving forces and indirect factors are further discussed. As a result, it was found that:⑴ The increase of grain yield per unit area and the sown structure variation of different grain-crop influence grain production directly,and further analysis indicate that grain yield per unit area and proportion of grain-crop sown of wheat and maize contribute considerably to the total grain yield;⑵Multiple crop index, progress in agricultural technology and natural disasters in agriculture cause the variation of total grain yield indirectly. Among these factors, natural disasters in agriculture result in the total grain yield decrease.