The Re-estimation of Output Gap-based Phillips Curve under Open Economy Condition:Based on the Provincial Quarterly Dynamic Panel Data
使用中国2001-2009年省级季度面板数据，通过系统GMM方法重新估计开放经济下的产出缺口菲利普斯曲线，发现混合型曲线能更好解释中国价格波动，且通胀预期管理对当前反通胀政策至关重要。
The paper re-estimates the output-gap-based Phillips Curve under open economy condition by system GMM estimation method with the quarterly provincial panel data of China during 2001 and 2009.Through the robustness test of three kinds of inflation index and four kinds of filter estimation of output gap,it is found that hybrid Phillips Curve under open economic condition can better explain the price fluctuations in China.Subsample analysis shows that adaptive and rational expectations have a significant impact on the inflation in China. From the geographical perspective,the supply shock to inflation is significantly higher in the coast area than inland area,while the output gap is more important in the inland area.From the time perspective,the effects of both output gap and supply shocks on the inflation are increasing.The research indicates that managing inflation expectations is essential for the current anti-inflation policy.While emphasizing on the use of traditional means of demand management to achieve domestic macroeconomic equilibrium,the government should also pay a close attention to the external supply shocks on China's macro-economic stability.