Can Monetary Policy Target on Asset Price? Evidence from Chinese Real Estate Market
基于BEKK和GARCH模型，分析中国房地产价格、货币供应与经济增长的波动关联，发现房价波动及房价与货币供应的联动显著影响GDP增长率，但央行目前无需直接干预房价。
Based on the BEKK model and the GARCH mean-value equation model,this paper analyzes the volatility correlations among real estate price,money supply and economic growth,and examines the impact of various volatilities on economic growth.It has been found out that the volatility of real estate price and the comovement between real estate price and money supply have significant impacts on GDP growth rate,and furthermore lead to decline of GDP growth rate.The volatility of real estate price growth rate does not significantly affect economic growth rate volatility,while the co-movement between money supply and real estate price change sharply,and the co-movement between real estate growth rate and economic growth rate does not show significant influence on economic growth rate's volatility.The conclusion is that the volatility of real estate price should be controlled,but currently it is not necessary for the central bank to directly intervene in real estate price.