RMB Real Exchange Rate and Age Structure
通过理论模型和实证检验，发现中美劳动年龄人口相对份额上升会导致人民币实际汇率升值，并预测2015年是中国人口红利和实际汇率的转折点。
This paper tries to explain the movement of RMB real exchange rate by age structure.Firstly,we build a theoretical model that can comprehensively reflect the mechanisms through which age structure influences real exchange rate.The model points out that age structure not only has an impact on the real exchange rate in the traditional way of demand such asdemand structure effectandcurrent account effect,but also through supply mechanisms includingBalassa-Samuelson effectandfactor endowment effectwhich may be more important in the developing countries.Secondly,we do integration test to the relation between RMB real exchange rate and age structure in the United States and China,and find that the increase of Chinese labor share relative to the United States will result in the appreciation of RMB real exchange rate,and the empirical result supports our theory.Finally,we forecast the long run movement of RMB real exchange rate in the future and discover that the year 2015 is not only the turning point of thedemographic dividend periodin China, but also that of real exchange rate.