EFFECT OF THE PORT LOGISTICS & AIRPORT LOGISTICS TO CIVIC & REGIONAL ECONOMY GROWTH IN GUANGZHOU,SHENZHEN AND HONG KONG
基于1990-2007年广州、深圳、香港的港口和机场物流数据与GDP数据，用格兰杰因果检验和回归模型分析物流业对城市及区域经济增长的影响，发现非线性三次曲线关系。
The port airport logistics industry has relationship with local and regional economic growth closely,according to the 1990—2007's statistics data of the port and airport logistics industry and the Gross Domestic Product(GDP) in Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Hong Kong,city groups including Hong Kong and Macao in Pearl River Delta,substitute GDP for economic growth and volume of freight handled and container TEU in coastal ports,volume of freight and post handled in airport for the port and airport logistics industry.At first,the author uses the Granger-causality test to analyze the causality between the port and airport logistics industry development in Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Hong Kong and local and regional of the city groups including Hong Kong and Macao in Pearl River Delta economic growth.The second,the action of port airport logistics on civic and regional economy explored in quantitative angle,and regression models were used to confirm the function between port airport logistics industry and local regional economy increase,the relation of the non-line and cubic curve discovered,and adopts margin and elasticity analysis to define the increasing number of local and regional economics resulted in port and airport logistics industry.At last,some correlative countermeasure suggestions to keep the balance between GDP growth and port airport logistics increment put forward in this paper.