An Empirical Analysis of the Real Estate Bubble——A Case Study in Tianjin
选取房价增长率与GDP增长率之比等指标，分析1996-2008年天津房地产泡沫，发现2003-2008年市场过热，并提出加强土地监管等抑制泡沫的建议。
Some bubble appraisal indexes are chosen and analyzed including the ratio of real estate price growth rate to GDP growth rate,the ratio of house price to income,the ratio of investment of real estate development to total investment in fixed assets in the whole country,the ratio of the commodity apartment construction areas to completed areas,the ratio of housing vacancy rate to sales completion rate,the growth rate of monetary supply,and so on.On the basis of the analyses,we can see that the investment heat of real estate is warming up and the price of the commodity apartment is fast rising from 1996 to 2008 in Tianjin.Between 2003 and 2008,the development of real estate is too hot and there is bubble phenomenon in real estate market.Some measures are suggested to hold back the further expansion of real estate bubble,such as to strengthen land supervision,inhibit gathering foreign capital,increase information transparency,improve housing security system,and strengthen the regulation role of economic levers,broaden the financing channels,optimize the real estate investment structure,use different tools to adjust real estate,develop the economy and increase households' income.