On the Rigid Savings,Monetary Policy and China's Consumer Dynamic
基于中国季度宏观数据，用SVAR方法分析扩张性货币政策对产出和私人消费的影响，发现其短期抑制消费、长期导致产出超调与消费持续，并通过刚性储蓄的新凯恩斯模型解释这些事实。
Based on China's quarterly macro - data,the paper applies SVAR method into impulse response analysis of real output and private consumption under expansionary monetary policy.Our empirical facts show that expansionary monetary policy enhances output and inhibits consumption on impact,and results in output overshooting and consumption persistence in the long run.The dynamic new Keynesian model with rigidity savings not only can match and explain the facts,but also is capable of generating an empirically plausible liquidity effect.Analysis of monetary policy transmission mechanism suggests that expansionary monetary policy increases output by the liquidity effect and the loanable funds effect under rigidity saving,generates output overshooting by price rigidity and investment adjustment cost,constraints private consumption mainly by cash- in- advance and precautionary saving,causes consumption persistence by habit formation.