On the Asymmetric and Phase Effects of Oil Price Shock and Macroeconomic Fluctuation in China from 1978 to 2007
利用1978-2007年国际原油价格和中国宏观经济数据，基于滞后增广VAR模型和格兰杰因果检验，发现不同油价冲击在不同经济发展阶段具有非对称的阶段性效应。
This paper systemically explores the effects and mechanism of different international oil price shocks on Chinese macroeconomic activities by using the relative statistics about the international crude oil prices and the Chinese macroeconomic activities from 1978 to 2007.Based on the Lag-Augmented VAR model and Granger Causality Test,the paper concludes that in different stages of economic development the different oil price shocks will have asymmetric stage effects.Finally,some policy suggestions are proposed.