The Empirical Study on the Volatility Real Exchange Rate of RMB and Currency Substitution
利用1995年7月至2009年6月的中国月度数据，研究了人民币实际汇率及其波动对货币替代率的影响，发现长期均衡关系存在但短期影响有滞后，人民币升值趋势有助于货币替代率稳定。
The paper calculates RMB real exchange rate and its volatility by using China's monthly data from July of 1995 to June of 2009,and analyses the influence of RMB nominal exchange rate and its volatility on currency substitution ratio.The result indicates that steady equilibrium relation exists between RMB real exchange rate and currency substitution ratio,but not between the volatility of RMB real exchange rate and the currency substitution ratio.The depreciation of real exchange rate and the increment of volatility of real exchange rate made the exaltation of currency substitution ratio,because of stickiness of prices and rigidity of money market, the short date influence has the lag factor,and flexibility value also is smaller than in long term.For long time, because of the stability of appreciation trend of RMB exchange rate,the currency substitution ratio keep opposite stability in China,which provide a beneficial condition for the internationalization of RMB,but we should also consider the risk of currency substitution.