ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLIER ON DEMAND CHANGE
介绍了产出、就业、收入、能源和水资源乘数的计算方法，并以张掖地区为例计算了十个部门的乘数，发现重工业产出乘数最大，农业对水资源需求影响最大，为区域发展提供了建议。
The theory of multiplier analysis is an important technique, which has been used to measure the relationship between each productive sector, production and consumption, supply and demand for goods. Equations of output multiplier, employment multiplier, income multiplier, energy multiplier and multiplier of water resource were shown after explaining the concept of multiplier. At last, the multipliers of Zhangye district, Gansu province, were calculated. The average of output multipliers of ten sectors is 2.3166, which meaning is that immediate consumption will increase 2.3166 RMB with the one RMB increasing in the final demand. The output multiplier of heavy industry is the biggest (2.8213) and the output multiplier of planting industry is the smallest (1.7381). The average of income multiplier of ten sectors is 0.6169, which means that the income of household will increase 0.6169 RMB with the one RMB increasing in the final demand. The largest income multiplier (0.7844) appears in livestock industry and the smallest (0.4999) appears in mining industry. Average employment multiplier of ten sectors is 1.1, which indicates that 1.1 persons will obtain employment with the increase of final demand by one RMB. The average energy multiplier is 0.203kg/RMB, which indicates that the input of energy will increase 0.203 kg of standard coal with the increase of final demand by one RMB. It finds that heavy industry and electric industry have the largest impact on the consumption of energy (their multiplier are 0.4059 and 0.4294 respectively). The average multiplier of water resource is 0.5359m3/RBM, which shows that the demand for water will increase 0.5359m3 with the increase of final demand by one RMB. The result indicates that agricultural industry has the largest influence on the demand for water resource. According to the analysis of five multipliers of Zhangye district, the suggestions can be offered as follows: eco-agriculture model should be carried out to save water resource; the second industry, especially light industry, should be put in the priord development position which is good for the saving of water resource; the third industry should be developed faster for the service for the whole society.