An Assessment on Influences of Crises on Zhangjiajie Tourism: Analysis Based on the Tourism Background Trend Line in High Time Resolution
利用2001-2011年张家界旅游数据，通过高时间分辨率本底趋势线分析危机对入境和国内旅游的影响，发现旅游业敏感但恢复力强，国内旅游反弹能力优于入境旅游。
Using the statistics data of Zhangjiajie tourism from 2001 to 2011,the four background trend lines of inbound and domestic tourist arrivals and tourism income were found on the basis of the theory of natural trend curve.This paper analyzes the influences of crises on Zhangjiajie inbound and domestic tourism by using monthly index on the tourism background trend line in high time resolution.The results show that the tourism industry is a sensitive and powerful self recovery ability industry.The tourism industry can always quick rebound on the heels of the crisis.In the end the tourism background trend line always pulled concave vale back,as the lifeline of tourism development.The results implied that Zhangjiajie has an obvious anti periodicity effect and rebound feature on the heels of crisis,science it has become well-known at home and abroad as a tourist destination.With the rapid economical development,domestic tourism has strong ascending inertia and rebound ability on the heels of crisis,but inbound tourism is more vulnerable.As crisis,SARS and international financial have great influence on Zhangjiajie tourism,and they have a long cycle.However,Natural disaster has slight effect on the Zhangjiajie tourism.The study provided a scientific basis for establishing crisis advance warning system and management system.