FORECASTING AND EVALUATION OF INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE IN CHINA COASTAL AREAS
基于1990-2003年数据预测2004-2008年中国沿海地区产业结构，发现仍为“二三一”格局但趋势不同，并指出农业剩余劳动力、二三产业就业滞后等问题，提出优化建议。
Based on the compositional data of industrial structure from 1990 to 2003,this paper sets up a forecast model and reports on a forecasting analysis of industrial structure in China coastal areas from 2004 to 2008.The study finds that the proportion of industrial structure still is Second Industry Tertiary Industry Primary Industry in the next five years,but the trends are different.On the basis of this analysis,the authors evaluate changes of industrial structure benefit in coastal areas,point out agriculture surplus labors will still exist,employment level of Second Industry and Tertiary Industry lags behind the level of industrial structure,which results in the uncoordinated relation between industrial structure and employment structure over the study period.There appears to be considerable potential,therefore,to resolve above questions.Suggestions are put forward: first,rational transfer of China's agriculture surplus labors;second,optimizing inner structure of Second Industry;third,enhancing the production value and the employment proportion of Tertiary Industry,and strengthening its competitive ability.