Facing Aging:What Can Urbanization Help?
利用2000和2010年人口普查数据，计算分年龄性别的城乡迁移率，模拟人口结构变化，分析城市化对中国城镇养老金体系平衡的影响，发现城市化可显著改善养老金收支，效果相当于实际缴费率提高30%。
Using the 2000 and 2010 census,we calculate the rural - urban migration rate by age and gender.A demographic projection of total amount and age structure can be simulated based on the rural - urban migration rate.We include the demographic projection into the frame of Chinese Urban Pension System,and discuss the contribution and benefit evolution of Chinese pension under the process of urbanization.This paper finds that urbanization would make a significant improvement,which equals to the effect of 30%increase of real contribution rate,to the aging future and the balance of Chinese Urban Pension System.An increasing fertility rate lead by a relaxing family planning only has a modest effect on balance of pension system in the short term,while the effect is strong in the long term.The postpone retirement age in any case,can gready improve the balance of pension.