The Study of the Deviation of Virtual Economic Development from New Economic Cycle in View of the High Volatility of the Stock Market Index
以股市指数波动作为宏观经济波动的量化指标，研究虚拟经济发展如何偏离新经济周期特征，并从经济结构角度探讨原因，建议建立虚拟经济与实体经济间的阈值机制以防范系统性风险。
In recently years,especially since the global financial crisis,in the context of the new economy that is characterized as the virtual economic development,Global financial markets,particularly stock market volatility deviate from the features of new economic cycle.The paper takes stock index volatility as quantitative indicators of macroeconomic fluctuations to reflect the new changes in the economy and further explore the reason from the perspective of the economic structure.And also the authors suggests that threshold mechanism should be build between virtual economy and real economy in order to avoid systemic risks accumulated from uncontrolled derivatives trade caused by high leveraged multiple.