Does Appreciation Anticipation Significantly Drive ' Hot Money' Flowing into China as Expected?-A New Proof Based on Quadruple Arbitrage Model and Bounds Testing
构建四重套利模型并运用边界检验方法，分析热钱流入与人民币升值预期、中美利差及国内资产价格上涨的关系，发现升值预期对热钱流入无显著影响，而房地产价格上涨和利差是主要驱动因素。
What factors significantly influence cross-border hot money flowing? Does RMB appreciation indeed drive hot money influx as expected? Based on these questions,this study constructs a quadruple arbitrage model and applies bounds testing approach analyzing the level relationship among hot money inflow,RMB appreciation expectation,interest difference between China and American and the increases of domestic asset prices.The result demonstrated that RMB appreciation expectation does not significantly influence the hot money inflow no matter in the long run or the short ran.It is the real estate price increasing and the interest difference conspicuously drive the hot money inflow.