ANALYSIS ON THE GRAIN SELF-SUFFICIENT RATIO AND THE SAFE BASELINE OF CULTIVATED LAND IN CHINA
研究了粮食属性、饥荒、禁运和贸易等粮食安全问题，提出适度自给率（90%），并基于耕地面积和潜在产量预测，计算出2010年全国及分区域耕地安全基线为0.056公顷/人。
Firstly the author considers some problems carefully that correlate with food security such as grain attribute, grain famine, grain embargo and grain trade. Then grain self-sufficient ratio is discussed through the analysis on the development of consumption, yield, and trade of grain in the world. As a result, the authors put forward moderate grain self-sufficient ratio(90%). Based on forecast analysis such as the quantity of cultivated lands' area and grain's potential yield, and scenario analysis of grain demand per capital (420 kg) and grain self-sufficient ratio (90%), the safe baseline of cultivated land in the whole county and sub regions in 2010 are calculated. The result showed that the whole country's average safe baseline of cultivated land is 0.056hm~2 per capita. For various sub-regional condition and grain consumption capacity per capital are different, it is important to build different safe baseline of cultivated land in regional or provincial scale