The Effects of Long-term Loans Share on Commercial Banks Stability in China:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test
构建理论模型分析长期贷款占比对银行稳定性的影响，并用2001-2009年中国14家商业银行的面板数据实证检验，发现两者呈倒U型关系。
This paper first established the function of return on net asset which could reflect the relationship between the long-term loans share and return on net asset of commercial banks,then introduced the function into the bank default rate of commercial banks,and put forward the hypothesis between the long-term loans share and bank stability through constructing the model of the effects of long-term loans share on bank default rate. Furthermore,based on the panel data of 14 commercial banks in China from 2001 to 2009,this paper empirically tested the hypothesis.The results showed that there existed an inverted U-shape relationship between the long-term loans share and bank stability in a significant level and this relationship was mainly realized by the effect that long-term loans share had on the VaR.