Research on the Fluctuations of Housing Market in China
构建了一个新凯恩斯两部门DSGE模型，用贝叶斯方法估计参数，发现货币政策冲击是房价波动的最主要来源，解释了约60%的房价波动，而技术冲击和工资加成冲击则主导了房屋数量的波动。
This paper develops a New - Keynesian DSGE of a two - sector model that describes the price and quantity side of the China's housing market,using Bayesian method to estimate model parameters.The results displays the following features:first,monetary policy shocks,housing preference shocks,technological shocks in housing sector and wage mark - up shocks account for a large fraction of the fluctuations in house prices,and moreover,monetary policy itself can illustrate about 60 percent,which is the most main sources of the fluctuations in house prices;second,technological shocks in housing sector,wage mark - up shocks and monetary policy account for about 95 percent of the fluctuations in house quantity;third,the optimal monetary policy in China mildly pegs volatility of housing prices.