URBAN SPATIAL FORECAST BASED ON GIS & SPATIAL LOGISTIC MODEL——A CASE STUDY FOR LONGGANG,SHENZHEN
研究了宏观与微观因素在城市扩张中的不同作用方式，构建了包含非负权重最优组合模型和空间逻辑模型的两子模型，用于预测城市扩张的土地数量与空间分布，并以深圳龙岗为例验证了可行性。
In urban expansion research,various models are used to explore datasets and to test the hypotheses between the urban expansion scenario and social-economic,institutional and environmental variables.Many researches about the urban expansion have argued the importance of macro and micro factors.Nevertheless,consideration about their different active ways in one analysis is often lacking.Based on the analysis of the different effect patterns between macro and micro factors,the objective of this paper is to construct an urban expansion predictive statistical model with two sub-models.One is optimal combination of nonnegative weights model,to explore the quantity of land required in urban expansion.Another is spatial logistical model,to explore the land spatial distribution of the land requirement forecasted in model one.For an urban expansion study in Longgang,a district of Shenzhen,the two-sub model is presented for urban expansion forecasting.The results show that,in urban expansion forecast model,it's feasible and valuable to consider the different effect patterns between micro and macro factors.