Evaluation Method of Emergency Evacuation Efficiency for Hype-congestion Tourism Flow Based on Catastrophe Theory
研究了超拥堵旅游流的应急疏散效率，用尖点突变理论描述不同时间维度下旅游流的变化趋势，并建立评价模型，发现合理发布应急信息和增加疏散设施可提高效率。
Hype-congestion tourism flow leads to increased tourist travel delays and decreased service level,and reduces the tourist flow evacuation efficiency and gives the tourists a huge security risk at the same time.Based on explaining the mechanism of hype-congestion tourism flow,the emergency evacuation behavior for the three kinds of tourists(Travel packages,Self-drive and public transport tourist) among the hype-congestion and freedom tourism flow are analyzed,then used the cusp catastrophe theory to descript the tendency of hype-congestion tourism flow under different time dimensions.By selecting the effect degree of the group emergency responses behavior and transportation behavior as evaluation indicators,the evaluation model of emergency evacuation efficiency for the hype-congestion tourism flow is established under the cusp catastrophe theory.Results of the example indicate that the different group emergency responses behavior and transportation behavior can affect the hype-congestion tourism flow;the application of cusp catastrophe model can effectively assess the advantages and disadvantages of emergency evacuation efficiency.The emergency evacuation efficiency of hype-congestion tourism flow can be increase by reasonable publishing emergency information and adding evacuation transportation facilities.