Demand Driver and International Coupling of China's Economic Fluctuation
通过建模国民收入与国际贸易的联动，发现中国贸易顺差的顺周期性表明其经济波动由外部需求冲击驱动，而美国贸易顺差的逆周期性表明其由内部需求冲击驱动，从而证明中国经济周期通过国际贸易与美国耦合。
Based on the modeling of the co-movement of national income and international trade,the demand driver and international coupling of China's economic fluctuation were investigated.The pro-cyclicity of China's trade surplus identified that China's economic fluctuation be driven by external demand shock,while the con-cyclicity of American trade surplus identified that American economic fluctuation be driven by internal demand shock.Therefore,it was demonstrated that China's business cycle has been and will continue to be coupled with American business cycle through international trade.