What Drives Inflation Expectations:an Empirical Analysis Based on the Chinese Households
采用时变参数方法，利用1999-2011年央行调查数据，研究中国家庭通胀预期的宏观决定因素，发现实际通胀和产出缺口是关键，房价上涨推高预期，名义利率影响滞后，汇率无显著影响，工资缺口反而压低预期。
This study follows the Time Varying Parameters Method to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of the household inflation expectations in China,using survey data from the PBC between 1999 and 2011. The results suggest that real inflation plays the most crucial role in driving inflation expectations.The output gap,which underlies the cyclical economic fluctuation,is also important.Soaring housing price in recent years has been pushing up people's inflation expectations.Changing nominal interest rate only exerts its significant impact after 2-3 quarters,indicating that monetary policy should be forward-looking.Changes of nominal exchange rate have no significant impact while imported inflation is statistically significant but quantitatively unimportant. Different from theoretical intuitions,it is found that positive wage gap tends to depress expectations under certain circumstances.