Excessive Wage,Excessive Liquidity,Import Price and the Sources of China's Inflation
将中国通货膨胀分解为过度工资、过度流动性和进口通胀三个来源,通过向量误差修正模型和单方程模型分析1993-2010年数据,发现过度工资增长是2011年高通胀的主因。
The paper aims to decompose the sources of China's inflation into excessive wage,excessive liquidity and import inflation.Two vector error correction models(VECM) have been built to identify the long run equilibrium of wage and money demand.Excessive wage and excessive liquidity are defined as the deviations of realized wage and money demand above their long run equilibrium levels respectively.A single-equation model is built to model the CPI inflation,which includes import inflation,excessive wage and money demand as regressors. The sample is 1993Q1-2010Q4.In this way the author concludes that the excessive wage increase is one of the main sources of China's high inflation in 2011.