On the Inflation Expectations in China
改进了Carlson-Parkin方法量化中国城市居民通胀预期调查数据，发现预期与实际通胀存在稳定关系，消费者会参考历史通胀和过去预期误差形成预期，央行应保持低稳通胀并及早阻断通胀螺旋。
Inflation expectations play an important role in inflation dynamics. An effective monetary policy should be forward-looking, and attach importance to the anchoring of inflation expectations. The paper improves the Carlson-Parkin method to quantify the survey data of inflation expectations. The nature of urban consumer inflation expectations in China and the effects of the expectations on actual inflation are also analyzed. The evi- dence shows that there is a stable relation between expectations and actual inflation. Consumers will take the historical inflation and past expectation error into account when forming their own inflation expectations which are self-fulfilling. The policy implication is that the best way for central banks to anchor inflation expectations is to keep low and stable inflation and should interrupt the inflation- spiral in the early stage to avoid high infla- tion.