ON THE MECHANISM OF AGRICULTURAL LAND USE CHANGE IN THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AREA——A CASE STUDY OF DONGTING TOWN,ANZHEN TOWN AND YANGJIAN TOWN OF WUXI CITY
以无锡三镇为例，用德尔菲法和主成分分析构建驱动模型，分析经济发展、城市化、农业强度、上海辐射力和耕地保护政策对农业土地利用变化的影响，发现各因素综合作用且驱动因子随发展阶段动态变化。
Taking three elected towns, Dongting town, Anzhen town and Yangjian town of Wuxi city in the Yangtze River delta, as the case study, this paper aims at make a driving model of regional agricultural land use change in rapidly developing area. The methods of Delphi and main composing analysis have been used to analyze the driving factors causing agricultural land use change. According to this model, the authors mainly analyze the relationship between quantity of regional agricultural land use change and regional economy development, urbanization level, agriculture intensity, radiation force from the neighbor city (Shanghai city) and policy change of farmland protection. The result shows that regional agricultural land use change is affected synthetically by all the above factors and there is a difference among driving factors of agricultural land quantity change in different town, and each drive factor changes dynamically during the different period of economic development. Finally, some policy suggestions about the sustainable Agricultural land use and management in rapidly developing area are put forward to as following:①protecting the agricultural land rationally (especially farmland resource);②paying most attention to the balance of the occupation and the compensation of farmland quality;③adjusting the structure of agricultural land use actively in light of the trend of agricultural sector development;④pushing forward regional economic sector upgrading and controling the scale of agricultural land use;⑤further improving the economic restrain system and policy decision system of land use;⑥enhancing the regional cooperation and avoiding the similarity of the industry structure and the land use structure;⑦promoting the progress of the industrial technology and increasing the efficiency of land use occupation.