The Study of Time-Varying Parameter Relationships among China's Economic Growth,Electricity Consumption and Coal Price
使用时变参数VAR方法研究中国工业增加值、电力消费和煤炭价格之间的动态关系，发现工业增长拉动电力和煤价，但煤价对增长无抑制作用，对能源总量控制有政策启示。
The quick growth of energy consumption has become the bottleneck of China's economic growth,and the central government puts forward the object of total energy consumption control,which requires that the variable relationship between energy consumption and economic development is variable.This paper uses time-varying parameter VAR(TVP-VAR) method to study the mutual relationships among industrial added value,electricity consumption and coal price.The results show that industrial added value has positive pulling effect on electricity consumption and coal price;electricity consumption has only small pulling effect on industrial added value;yet coal price has no depressing effect on industrial added value and electricity consumption.This paper gives interpretation of these results.In the end,the paper proposes some policy suggestions to realize the object of total energy consumption control.