A Study of Urban Transportation Based on System Dynamics Model on Private Vehicle Consumption in Beijing
构建了私家车消费的系统动力学模型，分析轨道交通对私家车保有量的抑制作用，并通过价格和铁路建设速度的敏感性分析为政策制定提供依据。
The imbalance between the growth of the private vehicles and traffic resources is one of the most severe situation that the urban transportation development is facing. The consumption system of private vehicles with multiple variables and nonlinear feedback loops is closely related with society,economics,environment and public transportation. This paper proposed a system dynamics model of private vehicle consumption based on the analysis of systematic cause and effect feedback,and explored the inhibitory effects of rail transit on private vehicle ownership. The model can also provide decision basis for future policy making by sensitivity analysis of pricing and railway construction speed for private vehicle ownership.