Re-evaluation on the Level and Pace of China′s Urbanization
基于钱纳里准则、IU/NU指标和跨国比较，认为中国城市化水平略滞后于经济发展，但当前速度与阶段匹配；预测2015年超50%，2025年达60%，2050年达70%。
There has been much dispute over the level and pace of urbanization in China,this paper tries to make its own judgments on these arguments.Based on Chenery Criterion,IU,NU and comparative analysis on the similar countries,this paper think that China′s level of urbanization is lagging behind the economic development level and non-agricultural level,but the lagging degree is quite little.Currently,China′s urbanization pace is matched well with the actual phase of economic and social development.According to Logistic prediction model,China′s urbanization will continue to advance in the next 15 years,but its pace will a little slower than that in the past 15 years.It is estimated that,China's urbanization level will be over 50% by 2015,and will reach around 60% in 2025.From then on,the pace of urbanization slowed significantly.In 2040 the urbanization level will be more than 65%,and 70% by 2050.