Multi-Scale Analysis and Grey Analysis of Grain Production in Hubei Province
以湖北省1978-2011年数据，分析粮食生产时空变化，建立灰色系统模型，揭示播种面积、有效灌溉面积和收获面积是主要驱动因素。
In this paper,select the major grain-producing province of the middle part of China-Hubei as the research area.It explores the impacts that affect the regional grain production,by choosing grain production statistics from 1978 to 2011,on the basis of the analysis of the spatial and temporal scales of food production.After that,the gray system model of grain production was established depend on the data about grain production and its related historical data of Hubei province.Besides,it expounding on food production drive mechanism by dividing into 3 periods.The research show that,(1) From 1978 to 2011,the characteristics of the dynamic change about the grain production in Hubei province mainly performance in third aspects.First and foremost,the grain output in Hubei Province ups and downs,it displayed a significantly fluctuated growth in grain production but the fluctuations in grain production in recent years has slowed down;Besides,the curve line of total grain production,the changing trends of per capita food production and grain yield per unit area are not totally alike;Last but not least,there are such as 25a,16a typical oscillation in grain production variation in Hubei Province on a time scale of 34 years since Reform and opening up.(2) Per capita share of grain and the average annual growth rate of spatial scale differences are significant in 17 area of Hubei Province.(3) The three main drivers of food production are the area sown of corps,effective irrigation area and harvest area.